On March 14–15, 2026, U.S. forces “obliterated” military targets on Iran’s Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf, the single most critical node in Iran’s oil export infrastructure, handling between 1.3 and 1.6 million barrels of crude per day — up to 90% of Iran’s total crude exports. President Donald Trump, in a social media post, confirmed the strikes, while warning that any interference with the Strait of Hormuz would result in strikes on Iran’s broader oil infrastructure. Iran retaliated by threatening to attack U.S.-linked oil and energy facilities across the Gulf region, and struck targets in the UAE — marking the first time Iran openly threatened a neighbouring non-U.S. asset.
The conflict, which began on February 28, 2026, with the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a U.S.-Israeli joint strike, has within two weeks escalated into the most significant West Asian military confrontation since the Gulf War of 1991. More than 1,200 people have reportedly been killed in Iran; over 15,000 targets have been struck by the U.S. and Israel; the first six days cost the U.S. approximately $11.3 billion; and Iran has launched missile and drone attacks against at least 10 neighbouring countries.
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For India, this is not a distant geopolitical conflict. More than 90 lakh Indians live across Gulf Cooperation Council countries. India’s LPG imports, aviation connectivity, fertilizer supply chains, and remittance flows are all acutely affected. India’s BRICS Chair role, its traditional policy of non-alignment, and its deepening strategic ties with both the United States and Gulf Arab states create complex diplomatic pressures.
Table of Contents
Background and Context
Five Important Key Points
- Kharg Island, barely 8 km long and located 25–30 km off Iran’s mainland coast in the northern Persian Gulf, handles up to 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports and can load a maximum of 7 million barrels per day, making it the single most consequential energy infrastructure target in the current conflict.
- Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei (son of the assassinated Ali Khamenei), has vowed comprehensive revenge, stating that “vengeance is not limited to the martyrdom of the great leader” but extends to every Iranian killed by the enemy — signalling that Iran will not capitulate despite its military inferiority.
- India, as BRICS Chair in 2026, has been attempting to facilitate a consensus position on the conflict through the Sherpa channel, but progress has been severely hampered by the fact that Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE — countries on opposing sides of the conflict — are all BRICS members.
- The U.S. has deployed additional marines and the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli to West Asia, and President Trump has stated that many countries including China, France, Japan, and South Korea should send warships to keep the Strait of Hormuz open — suggesting an international coalition is being sought to guarantee maritime freedom of navigation.
- Brent crude prices have risen from $73 per barrel before the conflict to $103.8 per barrel as of March 14, 2026, imposing significant macroeconomic pressure on oil-importing nations like India, which already faces fiscal stress from higher subsidy commitments on domestic LPG.
Historical Background: The Strait of Hormuz and Its Strategic Importance
The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most critical maritime chokepoint. At its narrowest point, it is only 33 km wide, yet approximately one-fifth of the world’s total traded oil — and an even higher proportion of LNG — passes through it. Historical episodes of Hormuz closure threats, including the “Tanker War” of 1984–1988 during the Iran-Iraq War (when Saddam Hussein’s forces repeatedly bombed Kharg Island), demonstrated the global economic consequences of disruption.
Kharg Island itself has been attacked before — during the Iran-Iraq War, it was bombed repeatedly but Iran rebuilt it and maintained exports. This history demonstrates Iran’s resilience but also the island’s vulnerability to concentrated aerial attack. The current strikes, executed by the technologically superior U.S. Air Force, are likely to be far more destructive than Iraq’s previous efforts.
India’s Foreign Policy Framework and Response
India’s foreign policy vis-à-vis West Asia has historically been premised on a three-pronged approach: maintaining strong ties with Arab states (particularly through diaspora remittances and energy supply), preserving working relations with Iran (which provides transit access to Afghanistan and Central Asia through Chabahar Port), and deepening strategic partnership with the United States without formally committing to U.S.-led military coalitions.
The current conflict severely strains all three pillars simultaneously. The Arab Gulf states are in the line of Iranian fire. Iran’s oil infrastructure is being dismantled. And the U.S. is implicitly expecting its strategic partners to either support or at least not oppose the campaign.
EAM Jaishankar’s multiple telephonic calls with Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi represent India’s attempt to maintain humanitarian and diplomatic dialogue without taking sides. India’s invocation of BRICS diplomatic channels is consistent with its traditional preference for multilateral, consensus-based conflict resolution.
Economic Implications for India
Beyond LPG, the conflict affects India’s fertilizer imports (phosphate from Morocco, potash through Gulf routes), India-Gulf aviation (2,600 cancellations in the first nine days; Air India’s London route now takes 12 hours versus 9 hours; New York route now requires a fuel stop in Rome and takes 20 hours versus 15 hours), and oil prices. India imports approximately 85% of its crude oil requirements. Every $10 per barrel increase in oil prices adds approximately ₹1 lakh crore annually to India’s import bill.
Additionally, remittances from the approximately 90 lakh Indian workers in GCC countries constitute a major source of India’s foreign exchange inflows — estimated at approximately $50 billion annually. Disruption to Gulf economic activity directly threatens these flows.
Geopolitical and Strategic Implications
The conflict’s longer-term strategic implications for India include the question of whether India should join a U.S.-led maritime coalition to keep the Strait of Hormuz open (which would compromise its non-alignment stance and provoke Iran), whether India should accelerate its Chabahar Port investments as an alternative to Gulf-dependent supply chains, and how India should position itself in a world increasingly divided between a U.S.-led liberal order and a revisionist bloc including China, Russia, and potentially Iran.
India’s Chabahar Port in Iran, developed with substantial Indian investment under the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) framework, provides a bypass route to Afghanistan and Central Asia without going through Pakistan. A protracted war that destroys Iran’s infrastructure could undermine this strategic investment.
Way Forward
India should mobilise diplomatic resources to push for a UN Security Council-mandated ceasefire, using its current non-permanent UNSC membership if applicable. It should accelerate domestic energy diversification — compressed biogas, green hydrogen, solar cooking — to reduce structural vulnerability. India should expand strategic petroleum reserves to at least 90 days of consumption (currently at approximately 9.5 days). Diplomatically, maintaining active channels with Tehran while deepening Gulf Arab and U.S. partnerships requires a carefully calibrated multi-directional strategy. India’s BRICS Chair role should be used constructively to build a ceasefire consensus.
Relevance for UPSC and SSC Examinations
UPSC Mains: GS-II (International Relations) — India’s foreign policy, West Asia policy, BRICS, strategic autonomy, non-alignment; GS-III (Economy) — oil prices, energy security, remittances.
SSC Topics: Indian and World Geography — Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz; Current Affairs — West Asia conflict.
Key Terms: Strait of Hormuz, Kharg Island, BRICS Chair, Chabahar Port, INSTC, strategic petroleum reserves, Brent crude, Operation Epic Fury, Mojtaba Khamenei, maritime chokepoint, tanker war.